PAPERS PUBLISHED IN PROCEEDINGS:

"Modeling Monetary Policy Using SPSA-based Neural Networks." In Proceedings of the 36th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, 1997.

With Winnie Yu.  "Economic Policy Making Using Neural Networks." In Proceedings of  the 1997 IEEE International Conference on Control Applications, Hartford, Connecticut, 1997.

With F. Rezayat. "Predicting a Recession in U. S. for 1996-1997, Using Information Probability Forecast Method." In The International Conference Readings Book of Business Administration, Athens, Greece, 1996.

With F. Rezayat. "Scoring Information-Theoretic Probability Forecast of a Turning Point in U. S. Economy." In Proceedings of a Meeting on Innovation, Technology and Information Management for Global Development and Competitiveness, Istanbul, Turkey, 1995.

"Evaluating the Performance of a Turning Point Prediction Model." In Proceedings of the Business Economics Section of the ASA Meeting, Toronto, Canada, 1994.

With F. Rezayat. "A Statistical Index for Predicting Downturn Business Cycle." In Proceedings of the Business Economic Section of American Statistical Association, Boston, 1992.

"Predicting Recessions in United States: 1970-1990." In Proceedings of Northeast Economics and Business Association Meeting, Stamford, CT, 1991.

"A Likelihood Ratio Estimation of the Non-Informative Prior." In Proceedings of the Business Economic Section of American Statistical Association, Washington DC, 1989.

"Combination of Forecasts: A Comparison of the Methods With the Least Amount of Information." In Proceedings of the Business Economic Section of American Statistical Association, San Francisco, 1987.

With D. E. Brown. "A Method for Generating Weights in Group Consensus Models." In Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Atlanta, 1986.

JOURNAL ARTICLES PUBLISHED:

Bayesian Estimation of a Decision Using Information Theory, IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics-Part A: Systems and Humans, 1997.

With F. Rezayat. "Probability Forecast of a Downturn in U. S. Economy Using Classical Statistical Theory." Empirical Economics 21 (1996): 255-279.

"Combining Ranked Mean Value Forecasts." European Journal of Operational Research 94 (1996): 505-516.

BOOK/MANUSCRIPT REVIEWS:

"A Diagonal Recurrent Neural Network-Based Hybrid Direct Adaptive SPSA Control System," by X. D. Ji and B. D. Familoni, in IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control (1996).

"Using Conditional Entropy to Evaluate A Correlator/Tracker," by F. C. Deal, Jr., in APL Technical Digest (Johns Hopkins University) (1991).

"Bayes Test For Locating The Faulty Component In A Malfunction Operations Process," by Fahimeh Rezayat, in Proceedings of The American Statistical Association (1991).

Bayesian Analysis of Time Series and Dynamic Models (two chapters reviewed), edited by J. C. Spall, Marcel-Dekker, Inc., 1988.

"The Social Context of Multiperson, Multiattribute Decision Making," by Irving, in IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics (1986).

CONFERENCE PAPERS ORALLY DELIVERED (last 9 years):

"Modeling Participatory Style of A Decision Maker in Experts-assisted Decision Making Process." INFORMS/CORS Joint Meeting, Montreal, April 1998.

"Modeling Monetary Policy Using SPSA-based Neural Networks." The 36th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, San Diego, December 1997.

"Decision Analysis in Pfizer Pharmaceutical Group." Applied Decision Analysis Group, San Diego, November 1997.

"Economic Policy Making Using Neural Networks."  IEEE International Conference on Control Applications, Hartford, October 1997.

"Using Kullback-Leibler Information Measure to Predict a Turning Point in U. S. Economy." Kullback Memorial Research Conference, George Washington University, May 1996.

With W. Yu. "Economic Modeling Using Model-Free Nonlinear Stochastic Systems." INFORMS National Meeting, Washington, DC, May 1996.

"Evaluating the Performance of a Turning Point Model." Joint Statistical Meeting of American Statistical Association, Business & Economic Section, Toronto, Canada, August 1994.

"Combining Mean Value Forecasts." Seventh New England Statistics Symposium, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, April 1993.

"A Statistical Index for Predicting Downturn in Business Cycle." Joint Statistical Meeting of American Statistical Association, Business & Economic Section, Boston, August 1992.

With F. Rezayat. "Predicting A Turning Point Using Measuring Change Methodology." TIMS/ORSA Joint National Meeting, Orlando, FL, April 1992.

"Predicting Recessions in United States: 1970-1990." Northeast Economics and Business Association Meeting, Stamford, CT, November 1991.

With D. E. Brown. "Decision Making Under Uncertainty." TIMS/SOBRAPO Joint International Meeting, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July 1991.

With F. Rezayat. "Bayesian Estimation of Predicting Probability of A Turning Point." TIMS/ORSA Joint National Meeting, Nashville, TN, May 1991.

"An Information Theoretic Approach to Predicting Downturning Points in A Business Cycle." The Fifth New England Statistics Symposium, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, April 1991.

With D. E. Brown. "An Automated Procedure for Generating Group Consensus." International Federation of Operations Research Societies(IFORS), 12th Triennial Conference on Operations Research, Athens, Greece, June 1990.

"Estimation of the Most Non-Informative Prior: Multiple Independence Evidence." CORS, Ottawa, May 1990.

"Combining Forecasts: Relative Entropy Estimation." ORSA/TIMS Joint National Meeting, NY, October 1989.

"A Likelihood Ratio Estimation of the Non-Informative Prior." Joint Statistical Meeting of The American Statistical Association, Business & Economic Section, Washington, DC, August 1989.

With D. E. Brown. "A Utility Approach to Group Consensus." CORS/TIMS/ORSA Joint National Meeting, Vancouver, Canada, May 1989.

"Generating Non-Informative Prior for A Bayesian Decision Model." Mid-Atlantic Regional Probability and Statistics Day, Johns Hopkins University, October 1988.

With D. E. Brown. "Bayesian Estimation of Decision." TIMS/ORSA National Meeting, Washington, DC, April 1988.

WORKSHOP LEADERSHIP:

Meetings Chaired:

"Statistical Estimation." Joint National Meeting of TIMS/ORSA, Nashville, 1991.

"Problems in Forecasting." Joint National Meeting of ORSA/TIMS, NY, 1989.

Meetings Organized:

SCSU School of Business, and Connecticut Chapters of American Statistical Association and ORSA/TIMS, Southern Campus, Annual Meetings Since 1990.

SCSU School of Business and Connecticut Chapter of ORSA, Southern Campus, Annual Meetings 1988-89.

RECENT GRANTS RECEIVED:

With Winnie Yu. CSU-AAUP Research Grant ($4000) for Project "Monetary Policy using SPSA-based Neural Network," 1996.

One of 25 invitees to the NSF-CBMS Regional Conference on "Bayesian Methods in Finite Population Sampling: Theory and Application," July 1994, University of Connecticut.

CSU-AAUP Research Grant ($3500) for project, "An Information Theoretic Approach to Predicting Downturn Points in Business Cycles," 1991.

SCSU Summer Curriculum-Related Activities Grant ($2200) for "Decision Analysis" Course, 1989.

CSU-AAUP Research Grant ($3500) for project, "Forecasting U. S. Gross National Product: A Comparison of Forecasting Methods," 1989.

" SCSU Faculty Development Committee ($845) for project, "Building Expert Systems," 1988.

WORKING PAPERS/FUTURE RESEARCH PROJECTS:

Strategic Design in Experts-assisted Decision Making Process